Dunning Kruger Effect: the Basics and an Example

Sometimes someone is very confident in their abilities, while the results do not reflect this. And sometimes a true expert underestimates themselves, because they mainly see what could be improved. You recognize this tension in the workplace, in teams, and in development. The Dunning-Kruger effect helps you to better understand this behavior. It explains why people with little knowledge or experience sometimes overestimate themselves and why people with a lot of knowledge are more likely to doubt themselves. For managers, this is valuable in coaching, feedback, and performance reviews. For employees, it provides insight into their own growth, learning attitude, and collaboration, allowing them to adjust more quickly and learn better.

In this article, you will discover what the Dunning Kruger effect is, how it originated, and what signs you see in practice. You will also learn what the consequences are for decision-making and team dynamics, and how you can reduce the effect with targeted feedback, reflection, and learning in steps. Enjoy reading!

What is the Dunning Kruger effect? The explanation

The Dunning Kruger effect is a cognitive bias, in which incompetent people tend to overestimate their ability.

The opposite effect for competent persons has also been studied: the tendency to underestimate their skills. An example of this is that one person in class who always says that he expects to fail after an exam. And yet he scores a 9.

The Dunning Kruger effect can be measured by comparing self-evaluation with objective performance. For example, people who participate in such a survey take a quiz and are then asked to estimate how well they have performed. This subjective assessment of the participants themselves is then compared with the actual score they have obtained.

This comparison is done in both relative and absolute terms. That is, compared to a peer group as the percentage that performed better, or compared to objective measures such as the number of questions answered correctly.

Definition

The effect is usually explained in terms of metacognitive skills. The explanation is based on the idea that incompetent people do not have the ability to distinguish between good and bad performance. They tend to overestimate themselves because they fail to see the qualitative difference between their performance and the performance of others.

This is also known as the dual burden account. The lack of this ability is accompanied by the ignorance of this lack. In some studies, the metacognition aspect has been included as part of the definition of the Dunning Kruger effect. Other studies see it more as an explanation that should be seen as separate from the definition.

The effect itself has been investigated by researchers David Dunning and Justin Kruger. They were the two social psychologists who first described the phenomenon. A total of four studies focused on the effect.

The Dunning Kruger effect in organizations and teams

The Dunning Kruger effect is not only found in experiments, but also in everyday work situations. People who have little knowledge or experience in a particular area can greatly overestimate their own level of competence. At the same time, colleagues with a great deal of knowledge tend to underestimate their own expertise. This has a direct impact on quality, cooperation, and decision-making.

Managers

The Dunning Kruger effect can become apparent in managers when they overestimate their own knowledge or judgment. A manager who thinks they know enough about everything is less likely to listen to specialists. Advice from employees is more quickly dismissed, and dissent is seen as annoying rather than necessary. This increases the likelihood of poorly substantiated decisions, underestimated risks, and missed opportunities for improvement.

A manager who is unaware of this risk may also think that they are very good at assessing people. Applicants and employees are then assessed on gut feeling, first impressions, and recognition, rather than on clear criteria and objective data. This makes assessment less fair and less predictable.

Employees

Among employees, the Dunning Kruger effect can be seen when someone thinks they have complete mastery of a task, while the results do not match this belief. For example, someone says that a report is always well written, while it contains many errors or the message is unclear to the recipient. Or an employee thinks they know all the safety rules, but skips steps because they think “it will be fine.”

This type of overestimation is usually not intentional. Due to a lack of experience or feedback, someone simply does not have a good picture of their own work. However, the risk is high. Mistakes are discovered later, work has to be redone, and colleagues become frustrated because agreements are not being met.

Selection and assessment

The Dunning Kruger effect also plays a role in job applications and assessments. Some candidates present themselves as much more confident and competent than they actually are. Others are more reserved and downplay their own achievements, even though their level is higher than they think.

As a manager or recruiter, it is therefore important not to rely solely on self-assessments. Practical assignments, cases, references, and concrete examples of behavior provide a more realistic picture. This also applies to appraisal interviews. Simply asking someone how they think they are doing is not enough. It is necessary to take results, observations, and feedback into account to prevent overestimation or underestimation from remaining invisible.

For teams

In teams, the Dunning Kruger effect often causes tension. Colleagues who overestimate their own knowledge are quick to speak up, direct others, and engage in discussions. Colleagues with more knowledge are often more cautious and nuanced. This can make it seem as if the confident colleague is the expert, while the quiet specialist is stronger in terms of content.

Team leaders can consciously deal with this by giving space to different voices, asking focused questions, and explicitly inviting experts to share their views. This improves the quality of decisions and helps to make better use of knowledge, rather than mainly amplifying the voice of the most confident colleague.

The Dunning Kruger effect in education and learning

The Dunning Kruger effect is clearly visible in how people learn. Students and professionals in training in particular often suffer from the illusion of competence. Someone feels they have mastered the material, when in reality there are still many gaps in their knowledge. This feeling arises quickly, especially after attending a lecture, reading a summary, or watching an explanatory video.

After a lecture, students recognize many concepts and examples. That feeling of recognition is unconsciously translated into “I get it.” It is only during a test, assignment, or oral interview that it becomes apparent that they are unable to explain the material independently or apply it to new situations. The key point is that recognition is not the same as being able to reproduce or apply something. The Dunning-Kruger effect describes this gap between perception and reality.

This also plays a role in vocational education and training. Participants may think they have mastered a conversation technique, analysis method, or software package after just one exercise or demonstration. In practice, however, it turns out that steps are skipped, important details are forgotten, or old habits return under pressure. People with little experience are more likely to overestimate their own level, because they still have little frame of reference and cannot clearly see what they do not yet know.

This has direct consequences for teachers and trainers. Relying solely on students’ self-assessments is not enough. It is necessary to conduct regular formative assessments, with small assignments, quizzes, practice tests, and practical case studies. This reveals what someone is really capable of. Students receive feedback and can adjust their own perception. This helps to reduce overestimation and clarifies where further practice is needed.

For students themselves, it is important to work with assessment moments during learning. Not just reading or underlining, but questioning themselves without a book, doing sums, using flashcards, or explaining the material aloud to someone else. These forms of active retrieval quickly reveal whether the knowledge is solid enough. Those who rely solely on a good feeling while reading are more at risk of the Dunning Kruger effect and only discover this when they take the actual exam.

Criticism of the Dunning Kruger effect

It is important to note that there is much criticism on the description of this phenomenon. Many debates on the concept focus on the metacognitive explanation and omit the empirical findings.

The most important argument heard in this category is the statistical explanation, which states that the effect is mainly a statistical artifact due to the regression to the mean combined with another cognitive bias. This bias is also known as the better-than-average effect.

The Dunning Kruger effect is described as being relevant for various purposes and practicalities, but there is disagreement about its use too. For example, inaccurate self-esteem could lead people to make poor decisions. It can also prevent people from addressing and improving their own shortcomings.

In some cases, this form of overconfidence can have positive side effects, such as increased motivation and energy.

A Dunning Kruger Effect example​ in everyday life

The phenomenon of overestimation and misjudgment of one’s own competences is something that can often be seen in daily life. Competent people are by definition more aware of this than incompetent people.

An example of the effect is that one family member at the dining table during a vacation dinner. The member of the family speaks at length and passionately on a subject and proclaims to everyone that their view is wrong. Although it is clear to many people at the table that this family member has no idea what he is talking about, he continues to chatter and is oblivious to his own ignorance.

Research by Dunning and Kruger

In one of the studies, the researchers asked 65 participants to rate how funny certain jokes were. Some participants were exceptionally bad at judging and predicting what jokes others would find funny, but described themselves as being highly humorous.

Incompetent people, the researchers argued, not only perform poorly, but they are also incapable of assessing the quality of their own output. That could be the reason why students who score poorly on exams sometimes feel they deserve a higher score. They then clearly overestimate their own knowledge and cannot accurately assess their own performance.

Incompetent people are also unable to recognize the skills of others. That is part of the reason why they see themselves as much smarter and more capable than others.

Tip: The Window of Tolerance shows how to remain in an optimal state for learning, thinking, and feeling. This ties in nicely with the Dunning-Kruger Effect, which shows how insight (or lack thereof) influences our self-assessment. In high-stress situations, we can easily misjudge the limits of our abilities. Read the article Window of Tolerance

Notable effect on behavior and self-confidence

Still, the incompetence doesn’t leave people disoriented or cautious, study researcher David Dunning wrote in an article for the Pacific Standard. Instead, incompetent people are often blessed with an inappropriate confidence, bolstered by what feels like deep knowledge about many things to them.

On the other hand, it can have a profound effect on what people believe. In one of the studies by researchers Dunning and Eherlinger, it was found that women performed just as well in a scientific quiz as men. Yet the women underestimated their achievements because they assumed that they have less scientific reasoning skills than men.

Faith is also part of this phenomenon. Some women refuse to participate in competition because of their religious beliefs.

But why does this phenomenon even exist?

Dunning and Kruger suggested, as indicated earlier, that it arises from ‘dual burdens’. Not only are people incompetent, but this incompetence robs them of the ability to realize how incompetent they are.

Incompetent people tend to:

• Overestimate their own skills and achievements
• Not recognizing skills and knowledge of others
• Not recognizing own mistakes and lack of insight

The traits a person needs to determine how good their own performance is are the same traits needed to judge how others are doing. So if someone lacks the capacity to judge themselves, then they remain incompetent and also ignorant of their own inability.

Metacognition

This inability has everything to do with metacognition, or rather, the lack of metacognition. Metacognition is about thinking about one’s own thinking. People sometimes look at themselves from a limited and subjective angle. From this incomplete or erroneous perspective, they appear highly competent and knowledgeable, sometimes even superior to others. This makes it almost impossible to paint a realistic picture of yourself.

A little knowledge

Another factor that can be a reason for the Dunning Kruger effect is having a little bit of knowledge. Having a little bit of knowledge about a particular subject can lead that person to think they know everything there is to know. A little knowledge can therefore be dangerous.

The difference is that a competent person knows when the knowledge he or she has is no longer sufficient in a conversation or other social situation. This person then stops talking. An incompetent person will still continue to share ideas and comments of which they are not at all sure if they have any connection with the truth.

Other explanations

There are a number of factors that can also contribute to the Dunning Kruger effect. These are:

• Using mental shortcuts that allow people to make quick decisions
• The tendency to look for patterns in things, even when there aren’t any
• The tendency of the human mind to try to organize and understand the information that comes in. The average person processes an enormous amount of information these days and it is not surprising that sometimes the mark is missed

Practical tips: dealing with the Dunning Kruger effect

The Dunning Kruger effect shows that self-assessment is often less reliable than we think. This calls for conscious countermeasures, both from managers and employees.

For managers

A manager cannot prevent the effect from occurring, but they can limit it.

Work with objective standards

Link tasks to clear quality criteria, measurable results, and concrete examples. Don’t just let the employee decide for themselves whether something is going well, but define when a task has been performed really well. This reduces the scope for overestimation.

Use feedback as a regular part of the work

Schedule regular times for feedback, both from manager to employee and between colleagues. Make feedback concrete, focusing on behavior and results. This creates a more realistic picture of strengths and areas for development.

Combine self-assessment with testing

Feel free to ask employees how they assess their own level, but always compare this with observations, figures, or examples. If there are significant differences, this is a signal to discuss the matter further.

Encourage a culture in which mistakes can be discussed

If mistakes are severely punished, employees will be more likely to hide their own shortcomings. A manager who is also able to admit to having misjudged something lowers that threshold. This makes it easier to discuss overestimation.

For employees

Employees themselves can also take steps to reduce the impact of the Dunning Kruger effect.

Seeking honest feedback

Regularly ask colleagues, customers, and managers what is going well and what could be improved. Ask for specific examples or use the 360-degree feedback form.

Working with trial assignments and tests

Don’t just rely on a good feeling, but have your work checked, create test questions, have a colleague read it or practice a presentation.

See doubt as a source of information

Don’t immediately dismiss doubt, but investigate it. Where does this doubt come from? What does someone need to know or be able to do to be more certain? Doubt can be a sign that there is still room for learning.

Active learning and keeping up to date

In fields that change rapidly, there is a high risk of overestimating your abilities. By continuing to learn actively, following professional literature, and regularly testing your own knowledge, you can maintain a more balanced view of your own level.

The Dunning Kruger effect in the digital and AI context

The digital environment reinforces the Dunning Kruger effect in a number of ways. Information is always available and many answers seem to be found with a single search query or AI prompt. This can give the impression that a subject is mastered, while the underlying knowledge remains limited.

Online information

Search engines, blogs, and short explanatory videos often provide quick, simplified answers. Those who read this information recognize concepts and examples and quickly gain a sense of familiarity. That sense of recognition can be confused with understanding. Without applying that knowledge in assignments, analyses, or one’s own texts, the insight remains superficial.

Social media further reinforces this image. It is mainly success stories, clear opinions, and simple explanations that are shared there. This suggests that complex topics are simple, which increases the risk of overestimating one’s own understanding.

AI tools

AI tools make it even easier to find answers quickly. Texts, summaries, and plans can be generated in a short time. The danger is that users overestimate the quality of this output and attribute that quality to themselves. Those who make extensive use of AI without critically checking the content may think they have a good grasp of a subject, when in fact they are mainly good at asking questions.

To limit this, a few practical steps are important.

Always check against sources

Compare results from AI and internet sources with reliable literature, professional standards, or internal guidelines. Don’t assume it’s correct just because it sounds good.

Continue to think for yourself

Use AI as a tool for ideas, structure, or a first draft, but then consciously check the reasoning yourself. Is the structure correct? Are there any counterarguments? What assumptions are being made?

Apply in practice

Only consider knowledge to be true understanding if it can be applied independently. For example, by explaining a concept to a colleague, solving a case, or making your own analysis without AI.

Developing digital literacy

Managers and employees benefit from basic knowledge about how AI and algorithms work, what limitations there are, and where errors can occur. This makes it easier to maintain a healthy skepticism and assess one’s own competencies more realistically.

In this way, the Dunning Kruger effect serves as a warning in an age where information and answers are readily available. It reminds us that true expertise requires practice, testing, feedback, and critical reflection, even if digital tools take a lot of the work off our hands.

Recommended books and articles about the Dunning-Kruger effect

This literature explains what the Dunning-Kruger effect entails, why it occurs, and how it manifests itself in self-assessment and decision-making. The selection combines classic studies with recent insights from psychology and cognitive biases, giving you a clear understanding of the model and enabling you to apply it effectively in analyses of human behavior.

1. Aronson, E., Wilson, T. D., & Akert, R. M. (2019). Social Psychology. Boston, MA: Pearson. → A broad overview of social psychology in which cognitive biases such as the Dunning Kruger effect are placed within self-perception, beliefs, and social influences.
2. Berinsky, A. J., Margolis, M. F., & Sances, M. W. (2012). Separating the shirkers from the workers? Making sure respondents pay attention on self-administered surveys. American Journal of Political Science, 56(2), 467–481. → Examines self-reporting and attentiveness, and explains why some people systematically overestimate what they know or how well they perform.
3. Dunning, D. (2011). The DunningKruger effect: On being ignorant of one’s own ignorance. In Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 44, pp. 247-296). Academic Press.
4. Dunning, D., Johnson, K., Ehrlinger, J., & Kruger, J. (2003). Why people fail to recognize their own incompetence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. → The classic study introducing the Dunning-Kruger Effect, including empirical evidence of the overestimation phenomenon.
5. Fiedler, K., Christ, O., & Lochner, K. (2009). Biased self-perception: On the role of motivational and cognitive factors in self-and social judgments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 96(4), 789–813. → Investigates why people systematically misjudge their own abilities and provides insight into the cognitive mechanism.
6. Jensen, J. L., Kummer, T. A., & Godoy, P. D. M. (2015). Improvements from a flipped classroom may simply be the fruits of active learning. CBE—Life Sciences Education, 14(1), ar5. → Shows how active engagement and feedback improve self-evaluation, which indirectly explains how you can reduce the Dunning Kruger effect.
7. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. New York, NY: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. → Classic work on heuristics and biases, with clear explanations of why people systematically overestimate what they know. This is precisely the core of the Dunning-Kruger Effect.
8. Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263–291. → Fundamental article on cognitive biases and decision-making logic that reinforces the psychological basis of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
9. Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one’s own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77(6), 1121–1134. → The classic publication in which the effect is first empirically demonstrated and explained; indispensable for theoretical explanation.
10. Oswald, M. E., Grosjean, S., & Caceda, R. (2015). Best of Both Worlds: Dual-Process Theories of Cognition. New York, NY: Psychology Press. → Places cognitive biases in the broader model of thinking, which helps to understand why self-overestimation arises from automatic or intuitive thinking patterns.
11. Pennycook, G., Ross, R. M., Koehler, D. J., & Fugelsang, J. A. (2017). Dunning-Kruger effects in reasoning: Theoretical implications of the failure to recognize incompetence. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 24(6), 1774–1784. → Clarifies theoretical and cognitive mechanisms that lead to the Dunning-Kruger Effect and discusses how thinking patterns fail in self-evaluation.
12. Plous, S. (1993). The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press. → Makes decisions and bias processes understandable and applicable, including how people misjudge themselves and make incorrect assessments.
13. Roese, N. J., & Vohs, K. D. (2012). Hindsight Bias: A Preregistered Replication and Extension. New York, NY: Psychology Press. → Sheds light on cognitive biases and relative self-evaluation, providing context for the psychological mechanisms that enable the Dunning Kruger effect.
14. Schwarz, N. (1999). Self-reports: How the questions shape the answers. American Psychologist, 54(2), 93–105. → Examines how self-reporting influences bias, which helps to explain the role of perception and metacognition in the Dunning Kruger effect.
15. Simons, D. J., & Chabris, C. F. (1999). Gorillas in our midst: Sustained inattentional blindness for dynamic events. Perception, 28(9), 1059–1074. → Shows how attention and perception are limited, which helps to understand why people overlook what they do not know.

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Original publication date: 11/14/2022 | Last update: 12/29/2025

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